Possible scenario
Israeli Political Reset
20% Chance
The reputational damage adds to domestic pressure over the war, international isolation, and legal exposure facing the government. A political reset becomes plausible if coalition discipline weakens and opposition parties frame diplomatic rehabilitation as an economic necessity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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