Possible scenario
Isolation Deepens Gradually
35% Chance
Israel's poor showing in the Democracy Perception Index reinforces an already visible trend of diplomatic isolation following the Gaza war, famine allegations, ICC warrants, and growing recognition of Palestine. The most likely path is incremental political and civil-society distancing rather than a sudden rupture in security or trade ties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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