Allied AI Decoupling

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

U.S. allies treat the expanded American ban as a template for their own public-sector AI-security reviews. The result is a broader split between U.S.-aligned AI stacks and Chinese model ecosystems, especially in government, defense, and critical infrastructure software.

What it moves

Technology+1.0%
Industrials+0.3%
Business Services−0.1%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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