Possible scenario
Trade Fight Escalates
15% Chance
The import plan becomes a legal and trade-policy controversy, especially if opponents argue that Brazil received preferential treatment after earlier 50% tariffs. Policy uncertainty grows for packers, ranchers, and Brazilian exporters.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.0%
Tickers
- JBS-3.2%
- TSN-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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