Possible scenario
Conflict Widens
20% Chance
The Hormuz closure hardens after another tanker, port, or naval asset is attacked. Iraq's bypass effort becomes part of a broader regional scramble for fuel, lifting oil prices and risk premia across energy, shipping, and inflation-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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