Possible scenario
Bypass Routes Stabilize
40% Chance
Iraq's emergency imports from the United States and Qatar, combined with Syrian overland shipments, prevent a nationwide gasoline shortage while Hormuz remains closed. Baghdad likely prioritizes Basra, Baghdad, and critical power-sector fuel deliveries, reducing the chance of immediate domestic unrest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+1.1%
- +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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