Possible scenario
China Retaliates
20% Chance
Beijing treats the cap as an escalation beyond tariffs and responds with targeted trade measures against European automotive exports or politically sensitive goods. The risk is meaningful because prior EU action on Chinese EVs already generated Chinese investigations into European products.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
Tickers
- STLA-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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