Possible scenario
Republicans Hold House
25% Chance
Republicans survive the difficult environment by localizing races, protecting incumbents, and benefiting from turnout in Trump-aligned rural and exurban districts. The Sabato's Crystal Ball changes still prove directionally correct, but Democrats fall short of the net gains needed for control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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