Possible scenario
Democratic Wave
24% Chance
The Sabato's Crystal Ball moves prove to be an early sign of a broader anti-Trump midterm wave. Democratic turnout improves in suburbs and college-heavy districts, while Republican retirements and candidate-quality problems turn several previously Republican-leaning seats into late-cycle toss-ups.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Energy -0.6%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.