Possible scenario
Hardline Enforcement Holds
42% Chance
The White House backs Tom Homan and treats Maria Salazar's criticism as a manageable intraparty dispute. ICE continues high-volume arrests and deportations, with limited concessions to Republican lawmakers from immigrant-heavy districts.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- GEO+3.2%
- +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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