Possible scenario
GOP Carve-Outs Emerge
28% Chance
Republican pressure from Florida, Texas, and agricultural states leads the White House to preserve the headline deportation campaign while adding narrow labor-market exceptions. Homan continues defending ICE, but the administration becomes more selective in sensitive sectors.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-1.0%
- MAR+0.5%
- HLT+0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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