Possible scenario
Narrow Criminal Case
45% Chance
The arrest remains a discrete federal prosecution rather than a market-moving policy event. DOJ emphasizes deterrence and election-integrity enforcement, while the case proceeds through routine detention, discovery, and plea negotiations.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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