Possible scenario
Legal Backlash Builds
15% Chance
Civil-liberties groups and voting-rights advocates challenge the enforcement push, arguing that database matching risks wrongful removals or selective prosecution. Courts become the main venue for determining how far DOJ and states can go before Election Day.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.