Prolonged Election Fight
−0.1%
The count tightens enough that both campaigns contest ballot-cure decisions, provisional ballot treatment, or county canvass procedures. California has no automatic recount, but either side can pay for one, making a drawn-out fight realistic if the margin falls into the hundreds.
What it moves
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.