Possible scenario
Administration Wins Stay
20% Chance
The Trump administration could convince an appellate court that the lower-court halt is too broad or that NPS has sufficient authority over federal parkland. This would allow the closure to begin on or near Nov. 15, though the underlying lawsuit would continue.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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