Possible scenario
Social Conflict Returns
20% Chance
The expansion plan revives the political tensions that disrupted mining and exports after the 2022-2023 crisis. Communities and regional leaders demand revenue-sharing guarantees before new production is approved, turning the headline into a supply-risk story rather than a supply-relief story.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- HBM-1.1%
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.