Possible scenario
Subcommittee Is Revived
35% Chance
House Armed Services Democrats move beyond discussion and prepare a formal revived oversight subcommittee for the next Congress, using the Hegseth regulation finding and the Murphy base-access dispute as the core justification. This is the most likely path if Democrats believe Pentagon compliance and contractor performance issues can be turned into a sustained institutional inquiry.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- LMT-1.1%
- NOC-0.9%
- RTX-0.9%
- GD-0.6%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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