Possible scenario
Caravan Disperses Early
38% Chance
Mexico increases checkpoints, buses some migrants south, and prevents the caravan from reaching the U.S. border as a single large group. This is the most likely outcome because recent caravans have often fragmented before reaching northern Mexico, especially when U.S. officials signal mass arrests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Tickers
- GEO+0.8%
- CXW+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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