Possible scenario
US-UK Testing Compromise
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated sequencing deal that preserves the UK-led safety-testing framework while giving Washington practical priority access. This fits the existing US-UK AI safety partnership and the G20 endorsement of UK-led standards, while addressing White House demands for national-security oversight.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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