Possible scenario
Regulatory Turf Fight
25% Chance
A sharper jurisdictional fight could delay the pending UK safety-testing pact and complicate the G20-backed standards process. This would be a sector-specific policy overhang for frontier AI developers rather than a broad macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Business Services +0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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