Possible scenario
Leak Reaches Officials
25% Chance
A politically sharper outcome is that the investigation links the trades to someone with access to tariff deliberations at the White House, USTR, Commerce or Congress. That would turn a market-abuse probe into a governance and trade-policy credibility issue, though still short of a macro crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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