Possible scenario
Contained Eastern Offensive
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a serious but geographically contained offensive in North Kivu and nearby eastern provinces. The Kabila-M23 alliance tests FARDC positions and political cohesion, but does not immediately transform the conflict into a nationwide war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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