Possible scenario
Accord Collapses
27% Chance
The June 2025 Washington accord breaks down in practice as Kinshasa says Rwanda and Kabila are coordinating a broader campaign. This produces a larger regional-security shock, though still far below a systemic global crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.