Possible scenario
Strike Remains Contained
48% Chance
The killing of Akram Yassin is treated by Israel as a targeted counterterrorism action rather than a restart of full-scale war. Hamas condemns the strike but avoids a major response because its Gaza command structure remains weakened after repeated Israeli killings of senior figures.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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