Possible scenario
Cease-Fire Frays
25% Chance
Yassin’s killing creates a short-term spiral of retaliation that weakens the October 2025 cease-fire. Hamas attempts to demonstrate command continuity, while Israel expands operations against remaining security and military officials in Gaza City.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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