Possible scenario
Regional Outbreak
25% Chance
Additional pneumonic plague cases are confirmed in Siberia, but they remain linked to hospital exposure and close contacts. The episode becomes a regional health emergency rather than an international crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.6%
- Consumer Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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