Possible scenario
Containment Confirmed
50% Chance
Russian authorities and outside health monitors find no sustained human-to-human transmission beyond the quarantined hospital cluster. The White House keeps surveillance in place, while Rubio's tone is validated by a lack of new confirmed plague cases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.