Possible scenario
Swap Stabilizes Supply
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the 4 million barrel SPR swap acts as a short bridge for refiners affected by Gulf of Mexico shutdowns. Because the volume is small relative to national consumption, the effect is meaningful for regional crude availability but limited for broader markets.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+0.6%
- PSX+0.5%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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