Routine Protest Cycle

China condemns the New Zealand transit and reiterates its claim of authority over foreign military vessels near Taiwan, but all sides keep the episode within established diplomatic and naval routines. This is the most likely path because similar allied transits have usually produced protests, monitoring, and short-lived signaling rather than direct confrontation.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.