Chinese Enforcement Escalation

Beijing responds by operationalizing its June claim of authority over foreign vessels near Taiwan, using more assertive naval, coast guard, or air maneuvers. This remains less likely than routine protest because direct interference with allied ships would risk a broader crisis, but it is plausible given the recent Chinese legal and military messaging.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.