Split-Congress Reversal

25%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Final counts or recounts leave Democrats with the House but not unified congressional control. Markets reverse part of the initial sweep pricing as investors reprice toward divided government, fewer tax-policy surprises and continued constraints on major legislation.

What it moves

Finance+0.7%
Technology+0.7%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down
Market volatility▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?