Possible scenario
Platform Scrutiny Expands
30% Chance
The CFTC broadens the probe from Kinzinger's account to Kalshi's surveillance, market design, and political-event controls. This is a realistic path because the agency was already probing suspicious Kalshi Ether trades one week earlier, making cross-market compliance a natural focus.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.