Possible scenario
Narrow Kinzinger Case
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the CFTC treats the matter as a fact-specific inquiry into whether Adam Kinzinger traded on nonpublic information about President Biden's pardon decision. Kalshi's broader political-contract business remains intact because the probe centers on one trader and one market.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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