Possible scenario
Denial Holds
45% Chance
The FBI's denial is backed by travel records, public scheduling details, or corroboration from U.S. officials. The original Russia-arrival claim loses traction quickly, limiting the issue to a short-lived political and media dispute.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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