Possible scenario
Contact Clarified
25% Chance
A narrower explanation emerges: there were Russia-related discussions, but not a physical Patel trip to Moscow or formal meetings with the FSB. This outcome preserves the FBI's core denial while leaving room for classified liaison or deconfliction activity.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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