Possible scenario
Supreme Court Intervenes
16% Chance
If the administration seeks emergency relief, the Supreme Court could extend its September database-check reasoning to Georgia’s voter rolls. This would be a more nationally significant ruling because it could guide DOJ demands in other states before the 2026 election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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