Possible scenario
Quarter-Start Rebound
28% Chance
September's modest 0.45% decline proves shallow enough to invite quarter-start rebalancing and dip-buying. Investors rotate back into liquid growth leaders while volatility eases from late-September levels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Bitcoin Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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