Possible scenario
Disinflation Relief Returns
20% Chance
Markets find relief if the next data points suggest that inflation and labor-market strength are not accelerating further. Lower yields improve equity multiples, though the reaction depends on whether investors read the data as benign disinflation or a growth warning.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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