Possible scenario
Casualties And Damage Rise
25% Chance
Additional rainfall, delayed rescues, or flash floods raise the toll and extend emergency measures. This would reinforce concern that eastern and northeastern Spain remain vulnerable after repeated deadly floods in 2024 and 2026.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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