Possible scenario
Operational Stabilization
20% Chance
Russia improves detection, jamming, and air-defense coverage around Moscow, reducing the number of drones reaching the capital. Ukraine continues long-range strikes, but the immediate market risk premium fades if aviation disruptions ease.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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