Possible scenario
Contained Russian Retaliation
25% Chance
Moscow responds with a visible but bounded escalation against Ukrainian energy, logistics, and drone-production targets. The retaliation raises near-term geopolitical risk but stops short of direct NATO confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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