Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Protest
45% Chance
Paris confines its response to a formal diplomatic protest and public statements defending the French Embassy language center. Tehran leaves the center closed but avoids further action against French diplomatic staff, making this the most likely near-term outcome.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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