Possible scenario
Supply Deal Proceeds
45% Chance
The base case is that ADNOC executes the Thailand LNG supply agreement largely as announced, using its expanding UAE gas portfolio and Ruwais LNG capacity. Thailand gains a more diversified supply source after the 2026 Middle East energy shock exposed its import vulnerability.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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