Possible scenario
Delivery Disruptions Emerge
18% Chance
Regional conflict or tanker-route disruption interferes with timely LNG deliveries from the Gulf to Asia. Thailand is forced to draw more heavily on spot cargoes, reviving the supply vulnerability highlighted earlier in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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