Possible scenario
Military Retaliation Escalates
15% Chance
Saudi Arabia answers the airport attacks with direct strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen, possibly with U.S. intelligence or air-defense support. This would shift the event from an aviation disruption to a broader Middle East security escalation with clearer oil and risk-asset implications.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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