Possible scenario
Regional Aviation Pullback
30% Chance
A broader group of airlines responds to the Houthi warning by reducing exposure to Saudi airports, especially Riyadh. The market impact remains mostly concentrated in aviation, travel, and regional logistics rather than becoming a full global risk-off event.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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