Possible scenario
Slowdown Extends
45% Chance
The August fall proves to be part of a continuing housing construction slowdown as high borrowing costs, cautious developers and falling prices weigh on new projects. This is the most likely path because the retreat in house prices has already lasted six months and approvals are a leading indicator for future building activity.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
- JHX-0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.