Possible scenario
Crackdown Broadens
27% Chance
The central government treats the anti-purge campaign as a public-order threat rather than an electoral-administration dispute. Larger deployments, expanded prohibitory orders, and selective arrests of organizers raise near-term political risk and hurt India-exposed assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.7%
- Business Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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