Possible scenario
Containment With Review
38% Chance
The Election Commission of India and the Ministry of Home Affairs move to cool the crisis without abandoning the voter-roll exercise. Police keep a visible presence in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, and state capitals, but courts and administrative review channels give protesters a near-term off-ramp.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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