Possible scenario
Counter-Bloc Emerges
20% Chance
Iran attempts to convert the network idea into a sanctions-evasion architecture involving non-dollar payments, barter and regional storage. This raises the risk of secondary sanctions on banks, shippers and buyers, while keeping attention on constrained Iranian supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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